“Keep Politics The Heck Out Of It”: In Toss-Up MT-01 Race, Dem Sam Forstag Refuses To Throw Trans People Under The Bus - Erin In The Morning | Substack

JordanHey, this one's been eating at me a bit: “Keep Politics The Heck Out Of It”: In Toss-Up MT-01 Race, Dem Sam Forstag Refuses To Throw Trans People Under The Bus. Where do you fall on it?

Dr. LiangYou’re focusing on the Montana primary when the real money is being lost in Ohio and Iowa right now. While Forstag protects trans voters, candidates like Marcy Kaptur are running ads claiming they’ll keep "transgender ideology" out of schools, effectively trading away their base for safe seats. That’s not a moral stance, it’s a cold calculation of who can afford to lose those votes without losing the election.

JordanWait, Kaptur isn't in a toss-up race, she's coasting toward reelection while tossing aside a chunk of her own party's potential ground game. That's a bad trade because Forstag is fighting for survival in Montana where every single vote counts double. You don't burn bridges in a district where you're actually neck-and-neck with the opposition.

Dr. LiangYou're treating Forstag's Montana win as a permanent shift in strategy, but it's really just a one-off in a district where the math forced his hand. Look at Josh Turek in Iowa declaring he'd support a federal funding ban on gender-affirming care; that signals the broader trend is moving away from protection, not toward it. Forstag survived because he had to survive there, not because he set a new national standard.

JordanPicture a small-town diner owner who keeps getting anti-trans flyers taped to her window during a close local election. She’s got enough regulars to tip over if she picks a side, so she ignores the politics entirely, but she remembers exactly who defended her business when the noise started. That kind of quiet loyalty gets paid back in votes on Election Day, especially in districts like Montana where the margin is razor-thin.

Dr. LiangPicture a factory worker deciding whether to buy stock in her employer based on one good quarter versus looking at five years of declining revenue trends. Forstag’s Montana victory is that single strong quarter, not evidence the company is fundamentally healthy or expanding its market share nationally. The broader pattern of Democratic retreat in swing states suggests the long-term trajectory hasn’t actually changed direction yet.

JordanOne good quarter doesn't fix broken earnings, sure, but it stops the bleeding. Forstag kept his footers happy while Turek's chasing phantom revenue. Who's actually making money here?

Dr. LiangStopping the bleed is fair, but it masks how much cash is still leaking through the walls. Turek isn't chasing phantom revenue; he's tapping into a deep well of donor capital that funds those anti-trans ads across the cycle. Forstag saved his district, but that specific victory didn't touch the national spending curve driving the rest of these races.

JordanDonor dollars fund the ad buys, yeah, that part tracks. But Forstag's refusal to distance himself from trans voters is the only asset currently appreciating in value among Dems in competitive districts. Turek might bank today, but he's shorting the very demographic his party needs to turn out in 2026.

Dr. LiangCalling that appreciation is like praising a store for having one shelf stocked while the supply chain upstream has collapsed completely. Turek’s position may be politically bankrupt for twenty-six, but right now he’s collecting checks from donors who see him as the most effective vehicle for messaging, which makes his portfolio look stronger than his fundamentals warrant.

JordanForget the donor pipeline for a second and look at the volunteer roster in MT-01. When Flint runs those attacks, he isn't just buying airtime; he is alienating the exact young adults doing door-to-door canvassing for Forstag. Those organizers are the cheapest campaign labor available, and Flint is effectively paying to fire them before they even start.

Dr. LiangVolunteer energy is volatile; it evaporates faster than you think once the midterm calendar shifts focus elsewhere. You’re betting the entire house on a group whose attention span lasts six weeks.

JordanAttention spans don't pay rent, but volunteers do free work that costs real money to replace. Flint spent thousands on ads that alienate the exact people knocking on doors, so he's burning cash to lose ground. Dr. Liang, you're calling it volatile, but I'm seeing a net loss on his side of the ledger.

Dr. LiangNet loss sounds clean until you realize volunteer churn happens every election regardless of ad tone, so attributing that drain specifically to Flint’s messaging confuses correlation with causation. The underlying trend in rural Montana turnout remains flat, and no amount of canvassing changes a structural decline without policy leverage behind it.

JordanStructural decline explains the baseline, but it doesn’t explain why Flint is actively hemorrhaging support in the one race where he can afford to win. Kaptur’s ad cost her credibility, yet Forstag is holding steady because he refused to sell out his base for a temporary bump. That’s the only trade showing actual upside right now.

Dr. LiangHolding steady in a toss-up looks like a win until you subtract the baseline volatility that exists in every competitive primary. Forstag avoided the penalty, sure, but avoiding a loss isn’t the same as generating growth when the broader trendline for Democratic turnout in rural states keeps drifting downward. We need to watch whether his “upside” actually converts to votes after the news cycle fades, not just praise the absence of damage control.

JordanYou want to wait for the noise to settle, but the ballot box doesn't offer a retrial if we misread the signal. The real test isn't whether Forstag avoids a penalty, it's whether his refusal to throw trans voters under the bus actually moves the needle in a district where Flint is bleeding cash to buy anti-trans attacks. If that integrity doesn't convert to votes by Election Day, then protecting the base was just an expensive moral gesture, not a winning strategy.